Let's face it - the Academy Awards ceremony, despite all its glitz and celebrity watching has become a pretty boring event for some time now. One of the reasons is that there are rarely any surprises in store when it comes to opening the envelopes and announcing the winners.
So the best advice I can give for making it through the broadcast - yes, I'll watch, though each year I tell myself not to - is to embrace the winners and enjoy some possible new trends. For example, it's pretty obvious that Alfonso Cuaron will win Best Director for his stunning work on Gravity (even though this is not his best film - that distinction goes to Children of Men); having won the Golden Globe and Directors' Guild Award, the Academy will certainly follow suit. So no surprise there, but at least we can look on this as a tribute to the filmmakers of Mexico, where some of the world's most dynamic cinema has emerged over the past decade. Of course, Gravity has nothing to do with Mexico, but perhaps the idea of a Mexican film director winning an Oscar will bring more attention to that country's film industry and even inspire some Mexican filmmakers to follow their dream, so that's a wonderful thing.
Likewise, Lupita Nyong'o appears to be a shoe-in for Best Supporting Actress; deservedly so, as her performance was heartbreaking. So perhaps her award will spur on other African performers to pursue a career (interestingly, although she is of Kenyan descent, she was born in Mexico City; quite a year for Mexico in the Oscars!).
Will this finally be the year that Alexandre Desplat wins an Oscar?
It seems to me there are only a few major awards (I'm not counting short subjects or documentaries here) where there is even a glimmer of suspense as to who will win. One of those is for Best Original Score. Here are the nominees:
The Book Thief - John Williams
Gravity - Steven Price
Her - William Butler and Owen Pallett
Philomena - Alexandre Desplat
Saving Mr. Banks - Thomas Newman
My analysis is that only one of these scores has no chance of winning and that's Williams' work for The Book Thief. This is a bit ironic, as Williams is, of course, the dean of film composers and one of the craft's greatest artists. But he won't win this year for two main reasons: first, very few people saw this film and for those that did, it was received poorly and secondly, everyone thinks of Williams as Steven Spielberg's composer - he's not about to win an Oscar late in his career for one of his minor works for another director.
Price has a chance for his score for Gravity, if only for the fact that this film will be one of the big winners on Oscar night; that often translates to an award. So it's possible, especially as this score is hard to miss - translation, it's a LOUD score, one that irked me and ruined a few memorable scenes. The Academy has screwed up so often in this category over the years (think of Jerry Goldsmith and Alex North and two other composers I'm about to mention) and you realize that excellence as far as a musical score often has little to do with awards; if a score is noticed (and it's difficult to miss this score), that's a major factor. So it's definitely possible for Price to win, but I think the Academy will look elsewhere.
So that leaves three scores and I think their composers all have very good chances to pick up their first Academy Award. For Her, Butler and Pallett composed a minimalist score that is very pretty and proper for the wistful, romantic tone of this film. I liked the score, especially as it did not call attention to itself, but as this is not a particularly "musical" film, I think the Academy will not give this score the award.
So interestingly, the Oscar comes down to two veteran composers, both of whom have been nominated on several occasions. The first is Desplat, who I believe is the finest film composer working today on a regular basis - I say regular basis, as 82-year old John Williams is understandably cutting down on his work schedule. Desplat, who has been nominated for six Oscars, has never won; this despite impressive scores for films such as The King's Speech, The Queen and Argo (for which he was Oscar-nominated) along with Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 and Zero:Dark Thirty; these last two, absolutely brilliant scores, which were somehow not nominated.
Desplat reminds one of the Golden Age of Hollywood film scores, with lush strings and full orchestral accompaniment, a la great composers such as Franz Waxman, Alex North, Miklos Rosza, Jerry Goldsmith or John Williams. Yet one reason he hasn't won is that this type of score hasn't been recognized by the Academy as of late; think of the Oscar going to Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for their electronic pulsations for 2010's The Social Network. So perhaps the Academy, in an effort to be more "hip" has decided to shy away from traditionalism for this category.
Yet, Desplat has another nomination and I think he may finally win, as his score for Philomena, is a beautiful piece of work, a sensitive score that brilliantly communicates the emotional tone of this film. It would be a bit ironic if he did finally win an Oscar for this score, as it is a quiet, subdued piece of work, unlike the grand scores he's composed in the past. It's quite possible that the voters did not notice this score (as opposed to the music in Gravity), so they could deny Desplat again.
That leaves Thomas Newman for his score for Saving Mr. Banks. Newman is from a family of Oscar-wining composers; his father Alfred won nine Oscars, while his cousin Randy has won two Academy Awards. Newman has been nominated eleven times without winning; a few of his nominations include his memorable scores for The Shawshank Redemption, American Beauty and WALL-E.
His score for Saving Mr. Banks is a gem, as he composed some of the loveliest melodies in his career. Especially memorable are his themes for Travers Goff as well as for the closing titles. This would be a well-deserved win for Mr. Newman.
Yet I just don't see him winning for two reasons. First, his score probably will be lost among all the songs from Mary Poppins in this film. Secondly, the recent controversy about Walt Disney will turn off some voters, so once again, I believe Newman will be denied.
So the Oscar will finally go to Alexandre Desplat and I will be thrilled! (By the way, why wasn't Alex Ebert nominated for his haunting score for All is Lost?)
But I think the award will go to Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell for American Hustle for several reasons. It is an excellent screenplay, beautifully organized with numerous memorable characters. He's also an Academy favorite, as several of his films (The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook) have won Oscars. Also, this film is nominated for 10 Oscars this year, so you'd have to believe that the voters will not shut out this work, as most of the other nominees for this film will likely not hear their name called that evening as a winner.
So American Hustle will win the Best Original Screenplay in a close vote - this is almost always one of the most competitive categories with excellent nominations - but I'd vote for Spike Jonze for Her.
By the way, for the major categories (the part with very few, if any surprises):
Best Actor - Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers' Club (great performance from an actor just starting to realize his potential. He should receive the biggest ovation of the evening).
Best Actress - Kate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine - I'm hoping for an upset here and will be cheering for Judi Dench in Philomena, but after a Golden Globe and a Screen Actors' Guild award, Blanchett will capture the Oscar.
Best Supporting Actor - Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers' Club - Another great performance and another wonderful ovation when his name is read.
Best Supporting Actress - Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave - discussed above. Just great work on her part.
Best Picture - 12 Years a Slave
Finally, a note about Best Cinematography, which will undoubtedly be awarded to Emmanuel Lubezki for Gravity. There would be more than a touch of irony in this award, one that has eluded the cinematographer on five other occasions. He will finally be recognized here for his work in a film that displays his lighting as well as technical prowess; in my opinion however, this is not his most beautiful-looking film in terms of pure visuals - that would be Tree of Life (directed by Terence Malick). However, this is a visually stunning film on many levels as well as being a very popular work with audiences and critics alike, so Lubeszki will finally win an Oscar. By the way, he was born in Mexico City - what a years for Mexican-born filmmakers!
Of course, this means that once again, Roger Deakins will not win an Academy Award; assuming this happens, this will be the 11th nomination for Deakins without an award. He is clearly one of the two greatest working directors of photography that have not won an Oscar; the other being Emmanuel Lubezki. This year, Deakins is up for the film Prisoners and his moody, nighttime photography - especially during a manic drive to the hospital in the pouring rain by one of the movie's principal characters - is brilliant. But few people saw the film and, well, he's up against Lubezki for the award. Wait til' next year, Roger (maybe). By the way, Deakins, who's turned in remarkable work on such films as The Shawshank Redemption, The Reader, Revolutionary Road, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (a textbook in cinematography and one of the most beautiful looking films of all time, in my opinion) as well as several films for the Coen Brothers, including O Brother, Where Art Thou?, The Man Who Wasn't There and No Country for Old Men has won several other awards in his career, the most prominent being the Lifetime Achievement Award from the American Society of Cinematographers, the highest honor for a director of photography.
As far as the other nominees, I'd vote for either Phedon Papamicheal for his amazing black and white photography of Nebraska or Bruno Delbonnel for Inside Llewyn Davis. I think both of these films are more in line with great cinematography and I'd be happy to see either man win. But it will be Lubezki's time for an award and it's certainly overdue.